{"calendar":[{"when":"Early Nov","event":"October CPI (PBS)","note":"September's figure came out on 1 Oct","source":"PBS: price statistics","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/price-statistics/"},{"when":"11 Nov","event":"T-bill auction","note":"Next scheduled auction of market treasury bills","source":"SBP: auction calendar","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/auction-bond.pdf"},{"when":"Nov (date TBC)","event":"IMF Executive Board: fourth EFF review","note":"Releases about $1.2bn if approved","source":"APP: IMF staff-level agreement","url":"https://www.app.com.pk/business/imf-pakistan-reach-staff-level-agreement-on-1-2bn-disbursement/"},{"when":"Thursdays","event":"SBP weekly reserves","note":"Week to the previous Friday","source":"Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446522/sbp-held-foreign-exchange-reserves-rise-33mn-to-2152bn"},{"when":"14 Dec","event":"Next SBP Monetary Policy Committee","note":"Rate decision","source":"Mettis Global: SBP FY27 MPC calendar","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-releases-FY27-MPC-meeting-calendar-expands-monetary-policy-communication-61352"}],"corrections":[],"cpi_policy":[{"month":"2025-05","cpi_yoy":3.5,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-06","cpi_yoy":3.2,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-07","cpi_yoy":4.1,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-08","cpi_yoy":3.1,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-09","cpi_yoy":5.8,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-10","cpi_yoy":6.2,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-11","cpi_yoy":6.1,"policy_rate":11.0},{"month":"2025-12","cpi_yoy":5.6,"policy_rate":10.5},{"month":"2026-01","cpi_yoy":5.8,"policy_rate":10.5},{"month":"2026-02","cpi_yoy":7.0,"policy_rate":10.5},{"month":"2026-03","cpi_yoy":7.3,"policy_rate":10.5},{"month":"2026-04","cpi_yoy":10.9,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-05","cpi_yoy":11.7,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-06","cpi_yoy":11.1,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-07","cpi_yoy":9.2,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-08","cpi_yoy":11.1,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-09","cpi_yoy":10.3,"policy_rate":11.5},{"month":"2026-10","cpi_yoy":null,"policy_rate":12.0}],"derived":{"figures":[{"key":"kse_ytd","label":"KSE-100, change since the end of last year","value":-0.039418,"display":"−3.9% YTD","tone":"bad"},{"key":"pkr_ytd","label":"Rupee against the dollar since the end of last year","value":0.012169,"display":"Rupee +1.2% YTD","tone":"good"},{"key":"real_headline","label":"Real policy rate vs headline CPI","value":1.7,"display":"+1.7 pp","tone":"good"},{"key":"real_core","label":"Real policy rate vs urban core CPI","value":3.4,"display":"+3.4 pp","tone":"good"},{"key":"fbr_gap","label":"FBR collection vs target, fiscal year to date","value":30.5,"display":"+Rs30.5bn","tone":"good"},{"key":"res_gap","label":"SBP reserves, gap to end-December goal","value":1.48,"display":"$1.48bn to go","tone":"neutral"},{"key":"fbr_share","label":"Share of this fiscal year's FBR target collected","value":0.202011,"display":"20.2%","tone":"neutral"}],"peer_real_rates":[{"country":"Pakistan","value":1.74,"display":"+1.7 pp","tone":"good"},{"country":"India","value":-0.04,"display":"0.0 pp","tone":"neutral"},{"country":"Bangladesh","value":1.16,"display":"+1.2 pp","tone":"good"},{"country":"Sri Lanka","value":0.75,"display":"+0.8 pp","tone":"good"},{"country":"Egypt","value":5.1,"display":"+5.1 pp","tone":"good"}],"moves":[{"key":"cpi_yoy","change":-0.8,"direction":"down","tone":"good","display":"0.8 pp vs Aug","title":"Down 0.8 pp vs Aug: better for the economy"},{"key":"core_urban","change":-0.2,"direction":"down","tone":"good","display":"0.2 pp vs Aug","title":"Down 0.2 pp vs Aug: better for the economy"},{"key":"policy_rate","change":0.5,"direction":"up","tone":"neutral","display":"50 bp vs 28 Apr","title":"Up 50 bp vs 28 Apr: direction only"},{"key":"tbill_12m","change":0.39,"direction":"up","tone":"neutral","display":"39 bp vs 14 Oct","title":"Up 39 bp vs 14 Oct: direction only"},{"key":"sbp_res","change":0.033,"direction":"up","tone":"good","display":"$33m w/w","title":"Up $33m w/w: better for the economy"},{"key":"ca_fytd","change":-119.0,"direction":"down","tone":"bad","display":"$119m y/y","title":"Down $119m y/y: worse for the economy"},{"key":"rem_m","change":12.676673,"direction":"up","tone":"good","display":"12.7% y/y","title":"Up 12.7% y/y: better for the economy"}]},"external":[{"item":"Current account balance","total":"−$874m","m1":"−$356m","m2":"−$73m","change":"−$755m a year earlier","source":"Business Recorder: current account, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444553/pakistan-posts-356mn-ca-deficit-in-september-2026"},{"item":"Workers' remittances","total":"$10.88bn","m1":"$3.59bn","m2":"$3.66bn","change":"+14%","source":"Express Tribune: remittances, Sep 2026","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633983/remittances-cool-to-36b-in-sept"},{"item":"Goods exports","total":"$8.45bn","m1":"$2.96bn","m2":"$2.53bn","change":"+11.1%","source":"PBS: external trade release, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Release_Statement_September-2026.pdf"},{"item":"Goods imports","total":"$19.21bn","m1":"$6.49bn","m2":"$5.82bn","change":"+13.2%","source":"PBS: external trade release, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Release_Statement_September-2026.pdf"}],"fiscal_path":[{"fy":"FY22","overall_balance":-7.9,"primary_balance":-3.1},{"fy":"FY23","overall_balance":-7.8,"primary_balance":-1.0},{"fy":"FY24","overall_balance":-6.8,"primary_balance":0.9},{"fy":"FY25","overall_balance":-5.4,"primary_balance":2.4},{"fy":"FY26","overall_balance":-2.6,"primary_balance":2.9}],"gdp_quarters":[{"quarter":"Q1 FY26","months":"Jul–Sep 2025","growth":3.89},{"quarter":"Q2 FY26","months":"Oct–Dec 2025","growth":4.31},{"quarter":"Q3 FY26","months":"Jan–Mar 2026","growth":4.42},{"quarter":"Q4 FY26","months":"Apr–Jun 2026","growth":2.0}],"indicators":[{"key":"gdp_fy","section":"growth","label":"Real GDP growth","value":3.65,"display":"3.65%","period":"FY26 (Jul 2025–Jun 2026)","context":"Revised from 3.70%","source":"PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/national-accounts-committee-nac-meeting/"},{"key":"gdp_q","section":"growth","label":"Real GDP growth, latest quarter (y/y)","value":2.0,"display":"2.0%","period":"Q4 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2026)","context":"4.42% in Q3","source":"PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/national-accounts-committee-nac-meeting/"},{"key":"gdp_proj","section":"growth","label":"SBP growth projection","value":null,"display":"3.5–4.5%","period":"FY27","context":"Unchanged at the Oct 26 meeting","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"gdp_usd","section":"growth","label":"Size of the economy","value":450.4,"display":"$450.4bn","period":"FY26","context":"Per capita income $1,896","source":"PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/national-accounts-committee-nac-meeting/"},{"key":"lsm_m","section":"growth","label":"Large-scale manufacturing (y/y)","value":0.67,"display":"+0.67%","period":"Aug 2026","context":"−4.96% vs July","source":"PBS LSM summary, Aug 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/summary-of-provisional-quantum-index-numbers-of-large-scale-manufacturing-industries-qim-for-aug-2026-2/"},{"key":"lsm_fytd","section":"growth","label":"Large-scale manufacturing, fiscal year to date (y/y)","value":1.85,"display":"+1.85%","period":"Jul–Aug FY27","context":"July alone: +3.03%","source":"Business Recorder: LSM Jul–Aug","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444634/jul-aug-fy27-lsm-grows-185pc-yoy"},{"key":"cement","section":"growth","label":"Domestic cement despatches (y/y)","value":7.35,"display":"+7.4%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"Jul–Sep: +7.8%","source":"Business Recorder: cement despatches, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40442407/sept-cement-despatches-up-735pc-yoy"},{"key":"cars","section":"growth","label":"Passenger car sales","value":10939,"display":"10,939","period":"Sep 2026","context":"−9.8% y/y; Jul–Sep +43%","source":"Business Recorder: car sales, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444025/pakistan-car-sales-rise-43-in-q1-fy2026-27"},{"key":"pvt_credit","section":"growth","label":"Private-sector credit (y/y)","value":14.8,"display":"+14.8%","period":"End-June 2026","context":"Stock: Rs11.38tr","source":"Profit: private sector credit, FY26","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/07/17/private-sector-credit-rises-148percent-to-rs1138-trillion-as-bank-lending-recovers"},{"key":"m2","section":"growth","label":"Broad money, M2 (y/y)","value":12.7,"display":"12.7%","period":"9 Oct 2026","context":"11.4% in August","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"cpi_yoy","section":"inflation","label":"CPI inflation, national (y/y)","value":10.26,"display":"10.3%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"11.1% in Aug; 5.8% a year earlier","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"cpi_mom","section":"inflation","label":"CPI, month on month","value":1.27,"display":"+1.3%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"+1.2% in Aug","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"cpi_fytd","section":"inflation","label":"CPI average, fiscal year to date (y/y)","value":10.2,"display":"10.2%","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"4.3% a year earlier","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"cpi_urban","section":"inflation","label":"Urban CPI (y/y)","value":10.1,"display":"10.1%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"10.4% in Aug","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"cpi_rural","section":"inflation","label":"Rural CPI (y/y)","value":10.5,"display":"10.5%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"12.2% in Aug","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"core_urban","section":"inflation","label":"Core, urban non-food non-energy (y/y)","value":8.6,"display":"8.6%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"8.8% in Aug","source":"SBP Inflation Monitor, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/document/publications/Inflation_Monitor_-_September_2026.pdf","change":-0.2,"change_basis":"vs Aug","tile_note":"Rural: 8.1%"},{"key":"core_rural","section":"inflation","label":"Core, rural non-food non-energy (y/y)","value":8.1,"display":"8.1%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"8.5% in Aug","source":"SBP Inflation Monitor, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/document/publications/Inflation_Monitor_-_September_2026.pdf"},{"key":"trim_urban","section":"inflation","label":"Core, urban 20% trimmed mean (y/y)","value":9.4,"display":"9.4%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"8.9% in Aug","source":"SBP Inflation Monitor, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/document/publications/Inflation_Monitor_-_September_2026.pdf"},{"key":"food_urban","section":"inflation","label":"Food inflation, urban (y/y)","value":8.1,"display":"8.1%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"12.1% in Aug","source":"SBP Inflation Monitor, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/document/publications/Inflation_Monitor_-_September_2026.pdf"},{"key":"spi","section":"inflation","label":"Weekly essentials basket, SPI (y/y)","value":11.85,"display":"11.85%","period":"Week to 22 Oct","context":"+0.65% on the week","source":"Express Tribune: weekly SPI, 22 Oct","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2636616/spi-inflation-sticky-at-1185-yoy"},{"key":"wpi","section":"inflation","label":"Wholesale prices, WPI (y/y)","value":13.33,"display":"13.3%","period":"Sep 2026","context":"","source":"Profit: CPI for Sep 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/01/pakistans-inflation-stays-above-10percent-in-september-2026-as-fuel-transport-costs-surge"},{"key":"cpi_target","section":"inflation","label":"SBP medium-term inflation target","value":null,"display":"5–7%","period":"Headline CPI","context":"","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"cpi_target_lo","section":"ref","label":"Target band, lower","value":5,"display":"5%","period":"","context":"","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"cpi_target_hi","section":"ref","label":"Target band, upper","value":7,"display":"7%","period":"","context":"","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"policy_rate","section":"markets","label":"SBP policy rate","value":12.0,"display":"12.00%","period":"From 27 Oct 2026","context":"+50 bp; 9 of 10 MPC members","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf","change":0.5,"change_basis":"on 26 Oct","tile_note":"9 of 10 MPC members in favour"},{"key":"policy_prev","section":"ref","label":"Policy rate before the Oct 26 hike","value":11.5,"display":"11.50%","period":"","context":"","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"key":"corridor","section":"markets","label":"Interest-rate corridor (floor–ceiling)","value":null,"display":"11.00–13.00%","period":"Oct 2026","context":"","source":"State Bank of Pakistan home page","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/"},{"key":"repo_on","section":"markets","label":"Overnight repo, weighted average","value":11.49,"display":"11.49%","period":"28 Oct 2026","context":"","source":"State Bank of Pakistan home page","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/"},{"key":"tbill_12m","section":"markets","label":"12-month T-bill, auction cut-off","value":12.89,"display":"12.89%","period":"28 Oct auction","context":"12.50% at the 14 Oct auction","source":"SBP: T-bill auction results, 28 Oct","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Auction-Investment.pdf","change":0.39,"change_basis":"vs 14 Oct"},{"key":"tbill_auction","section":"markets","label":"Latest T-bill auction","value":null,"display":"Rs1.91tr raised","period":"28 Oct 2026","context":"Cut-offs up by as much as 61 bp","source":"Dawn: T-bill auction, 28 Oct","url":"https://www.dawn.com/news/2040569"},{"key":"pib_10y","section":"markets","label":"10-year PIB, auction cut-off","value":12.85,"display":"12.85%","period":"7 Oct auction","context":"12.50% on 18 Sep","source":"SBP EasyData: PIB cut-off yields","url":"https://easydata.sbp.org.pk/"},{"key":"kse100","section":"markets","label":"KSE-100 index","value":167193.43,"display":"167,193","period":"29 Oct close","context":"+0.88% on the day","source":"Business Recorder: PSX close, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446464/psx-positive-momentum-continues-kse-100-accumulates-over-1400-points"},{"key":"kse100_base","section":"markets","label":"KSE-100 at the end of last year","value":174054.32,"display":"174,054","period":"31 Dec 2025","context":"Last close of 2025","source":"APP: PSX close, 31 Dec 2025","url":"https://www.app.com.pk/?p=1138891"},{"key":"usdpkr","section":"markets","label":"Rupees per US dollar (SBP mark-to-market rate)","value":276.76,"display":"276.76","period":"29 Oct close","context":"Re0.01 stronger on the day","source":"Business Recorder: rupee, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446505/rupee-extends-gain-against-us-dollar"},{"key":"usdpkr_base","section":"markets","label":"Rupees per US dollar at the end of last year","value":280.12,"display":"280.12","period":"31 Dec 2025","context":"","source":"APP: rupee, 31 Dec 2025","url":"https://www.app.com.pk/?p=1138733"},{"key":"brent","section":"markets","label":"Brent crude, $ per barrel","value":114.88,"display":"$114.88","period":"29 Oct settle","context":"−$0.44 on the day","source":"CNBC: oil prices, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/oil-price-today-wti-brent.html"},{"key":"euro_10","section":"markets","label":"Eurobond, 10-year coupon","value":7.9,"display":"7.90%","period":"Issued Sep 2026","context":"$1.25bn","source":"Business Recorder: Eurobond, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40437728/pakistan-raises-3bn-through-eurobond-sale"},{"key":"euro_55","section":"markets","label":"Eurobond, 5.5-year coupon","value":7.5,"display":"7.50%","period":"Issued Sep 2026","context":"$1.75bn","source":"Business Recorder: Eurobond, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40437728/pakistan-raises-3bn-through-eurobond-sale"},{"key":"sbp_res","section":"external","label":"SBP foreign-exchange reserves","value":21.52,"display":"$21.52bn","period":"23 Oct 2026","context":"+$33m on the week","source":"Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446522/sbp-held-foreign-exchange-reserves-rise-33mn-to-2152bn","change":0.033,"change_basis":"w/w","tile_note":"Goal: $23bn by end-Dec"},{"key":"total_res","section":"external","label":"Total liquid reserves (SBP + banks)","value":26.75,"display":"$26.75bn","period":"23 Oct 2026","context":"Banks hold $5.23bn","source":"Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446522/sbp-held-foreign-exchange-reserves-rise-33mn-to-2152bn"},{"key":"cover","section":"external","label":"Import cover, total liquid reserves","value":3,"display":"3+ months","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"2.2 months a year earlier","source":"Profit: Finance Ministry Q1 FY27 scorecard","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/27/pakistans-forex-reserves-rise-52percent-foreign-investment-up-20percent-exports-grow-11percent-in-q1-fy27"},{"key":"res_goal","section":"external","label":"SBP reserves goal","value":23,"display":"$23bn","period":"End-Dec 2026","context":"$25bn by end-June 2027","source":"Mettis Global: SBP Governor's press conference, 26 Oct","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-sees-forex-reserves-at-25bn-by-June-2027-64519"},{"key":"ca_fytd","section":"external","label":"Current account balance, fiscal year to date","value":-874,"display":"−$874m","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"−$755m a year earlier","source":"Business Recorder: current account, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444553/pakistan-posts-356mn-ca-deficit-in-september-2026"},{"key":"ca_m","section":"external","label":"Current account balance","value":-356,"display":"−$356m","period":"Sep 2026","context":"−$73m in Aug","source":"Business Recorder: current account, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444553/pakistan-posts-356mn-ca-deficit-in-september-2026"},{"key":"rem_m","section":"external","label":"Workers' remittances","value":3.59,"display":"$3.59bn","period":"Sep 2026","context":"+12.7% y/y","source":"Express Tribune: remittances, Sep 2026","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633983/remittances-cool-to-36b-in-sept","change":12.7,"change_basis":"y/y","tile_note":"$10.88bn in Jul–Sep"},{"key":"rem_fytd","section":"external","label":"Workers' remittances, fiscal year to date","value":10.88,"display":"$10.88bn","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"+14% y/y","source":"Express Tribune: remittances, Sep 2026","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633983/remittances-cool-to-36b-in-sept"},{"key":"trade_fytd","section":"external","label":"Goods trade deficit, fiscal year to date","value":10.77,"display":"$10.77bn","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"Exports $8.45bn, imports $19.21bn","source":"PBS: external trade release, Sep 2026","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Release_Statement_September-2026.pdf"},{"key":"ca_proj","section":"external","label":"SBP current-account projection","value":null,"display":"0–1% of GDP deficit","period":"FY27","context":"Governor: probably around 0.5%","source":"The Nation: SBP raises rate to 12%","url":"https://www.nation.com.pk/27-Oct-2026/sbp-raises-policy-rate-50-bps-12pc"},{"key":"fbr_fytd","section":"fiscal","label":"FBR tax collection, fiscal year to date","value":3083.5,"display":"Rs3,083bn","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"+7% y/y","source":"Business Recorder: FBR collection, Q1 FY27","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443743/fbr-exceeds-q1-collection-target"},{"key":"fbr_fytd_target","section":"fiscal","label":"FBR target, fiscal year to date","value":3053,"display":"Rs3,053bn","period":"Jul–Sep FY27","context":"","source":"Business Recorder: FBR collection, Q1 FY27","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443743/fbr-exceeds-q1-collection-target"},{"key":"fbr_fy_target","section":"fiscal","label":"FBR annual target","value":15264,"display":"Rs15,264bn","period":"FY27","context":"Collected just over Rs13tr in FY26","source":"Dawn: FBR Q1 FY27","url":"https://epaper.dawn.com/DetailImage.php?StoryImage=01_10_2026_009_004"},{"key":"deficit_fy","section":"fiscal","label":"Overall fiscal deficit","value":2.6,"display":"2.6% of GDP","period":"FY26","context":"5.4% in FY25","source":"The Nation: fiscal operations FY26","url":"https://www.nation.com.pk/14-Aug-2026/fiscal-deficit-shrinks-2-6pc-gdp-fy2025-26-lowest-22-years"},{"key":"primary_fy","section":"fiscal","label":"Primary surplus","value":2.9,"display":"2.9% of GDP","period":"FY26","context":"Third primary surplus in a row","source":"The News: fiscal operations FY26","url":"https://www.thenews.pk/print/1431955-fiscal-deficit-drops-to-2-6pc-in-fy26-lowest-in-22-years"},{"key":"imf_status","section":"fiscal","label":"IMF EFF, fourth review","value":null,"display":"Staff-level agreement","period":"7 Oct 2026","context":"About $1.2bn awaits Executive Board approval","source":"Business Recorder: IMF staff-level agreement","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443228/imf-pakistan-reach-staff-level-agreement-on-eff-rsf-reviews"},{"key":"imf_total","section":"fiscal","label":"IMF disbursed once approved (EFF + RSF)","value":5.7,"display":"about $5.7bn","period":"EFF + RSF to date","context":"","source":"Radio Pakistan: IMF agreement","url":"https://www.radio.gov.pk/08-10-2026/pakistan-imf-reach-staff-level-agreement-for-12b-tranche"},{"key":"rating_moodys","section":"fiscal","label":"Moody's sovereign rating","value":null,"display":"B3 (stable)","period":"Raised Aug 2026","context":"From Caa1","source":"Business Recorder: Moody's upgrade, Aug 2026","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40436306/moodys-upgrades-pakistans-rating-to-b3-maintains-stable-outlook"},{"key":"rating_sp","section":"fiscal","label":"S&P sovereign rating","value":null,"display":"B (stable)","period":"Raised Jul 2026","context":"From B−","source":"The Nation: S&P upgrade, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.nation.com.pk/23-Jul-2026/s-p-upgrades-pakistan-s-long-term-sovereign-credit-rating-b"},{"key":"rating_fitch","section":"fiscal","label":"Fitch sovereign rating","value":null,"display":"B− (stable)","period":"Affirmed Apr 2026","context":"","source":"Profit: Fitch affirmation, Apr 2026","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/04/13/fitch-affirms-pakistans-b-rating-with-stable-outlook-flags-energy-exposure-as-key-risk/"}],"meta":{"name":"Source: Pakistan","asof":"30 Oct 2026","asof_iso":"2026-10-30","notes":"Official figures are downloaded from the publishers' own data services and calculated by code; interim figures are read from SBP, PBS, Finance Ministry and FBR releases, market closes, and news reports of them. Every figure shows its source.","takeaway":"Inflation of 10.3% is well above the State Bank's 5–7% target, so the policy rate is back up at 12.00%. Buffers are thicker, with SBP reserves at $21.52bn, but the current account has slipped back into deficit: −$874m in July–September.","so_what":"Expensive oil is squeezing Pakistan from both sides, keeping prices high at home and widening the trade gap, and the State Bank has chosen to fight inflation even at some cost to growth. Expect borrowing to stay costly for a while; the external account is the risk to watch, with thicker reserves as the cushion.","commentary":{"inflation":"Inflation was below the 5–7% target band in mid-2025 and inside it from September to February, then rose to 7.3% in March and jumped to 10.9% in April 2026; it has stayed between 9.2% and 11.7% since. The State Bank cut its rate to 10.5% in December, raised it to 11.5% in April and to 12.00% this week, leaving it 1.7 points above inflation: positive, but a thin cushion if oil keeps pushing prices up.","growth":"Factory output in July and August ran slightly above last year's level, so manufacturing is growing, but slowly. The IMF expects growth of 3.5% this fiscal year, about the same as last year and well below the 6.2% of FY22: a recovery, but a modest one, and higher interest rates make a faster one less likely."},"curve":{"latest":"Latest auctions","previous":"Previous auctions","latest_short":"Latest","previous_short":"Previous","note":"T-bill cut-off yields from the 28 Oct auction, after the October rate hike, against 14 Oct; bond yields from the 7 Oct PIB auction against 18 Sep. 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cut-off","unit":"percent","status":"confirmed","section":"reference","calc":"as_published@1","series":[{"key":"sbp_tbill_6m","code":"TS_GP_BAM_SIRTBIL_AH.TB0020","source":"State Bank of Pakistan","dataset":"EasyData","frequency":"as-needed"}]}]},"reserves_path":[{"label":"11 Jul 2025","sbp_bn":14.53,"kind":"Actual","note":"Weekly reading","source":"Profit: SBP reserves, Jul 2025","url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/?p=205559"},{"label":"24 Jun 2026","sbp_bn":16.53,"kind":"Actual","note":"Weekly reading","source":"APP: SBP reserves, week to 24 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.app.com.pk/?p=1238008"},{"label":"17 Jul 2026","sbp_bn":17.3,"kind":"Actual","note":"After debt repayments","source":"The News: SBP statement, Jul 2026","url":"https://www.thenews.pk/print/1428820-rupee-stays-flat-in-interbank"},{"label":"21 Aug 2026","sbp_bn":17.1,"kind":"Actual","note":"Weekly reading","source":"Express Tribune: SBP reserves, 28 Aug","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2626127/sbp-reserves-edge-up-17m-to-171b"},{"label":"11 Sep 2026","sbp_bn":21.39,"kind":"Actual","note":"After Eurobond proceeds","source":"Mettis Global: SBP reserves, 17 Sep","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-reserves-surge-306bn-to-2139bn-63541"},{"label":"23 Oct 2026","sbp_bn":21.52,"kind":"Actual","note":"Latest week","source":"Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446522/sbp-held-foreign-exchange-reserves-rise-33mn-to-2152bn"},{"label":"Dec 2026","sbp_bn":23.0,"kind":"Goal","note":"SBP Governor's goal","source":"Mettis Global: SBP Governor's press conference, 26 Oct","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-sees-forex-reserves-at-25bn-by-June-2027-64519"},{"label":"Jun 2027","sbp_bn":25.0,"kind":"Goal","note":"SBP Governor's goal","source":"Mettis Global: SBP Governor's press conference, 26 Oct","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-sees-forex-reserves-at-25bn-by-June-2027-64519"}],"scorecard":[{"item":"Headline inflation","latest":"10.3% (Sep)","target":"5–7% over the medium term","status":"Above target","tone":"bad","note":"SBP no longer gives a date for getting back into range","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"item":"SBP reserves","latest":"$21.52bn (23 Oct)","target":"$23bn by end-Dec 2026","status":"Short of goal","tone":"warn","note":"Up $33m in the latest week","source":"Mettis Global: SBP Governor's press conference, 26 Oct","url":"https://mettisglobal.news/SBP-sees-forex-reserves-at-25bn-by-June-2027-64519"},{"item":"Current account, FY27","latest":"−$874m (Jul–Sep)","target":"Deficit of 0–1% of GDP","status":"Inside range","tone":"warn","note":"SBP now sees it slightly above the middle of the range","source":"The Nation: SBP raises rate to 12%","url":"https://www.nation.com.pk/27-Oct-2026/sbp-raises-policy-rate-50-bps-12pc"},{"item":"FBR tax collection","latest":"Rs3,083bn (Jul–Sep)","target":"Rs3,053bn for the quarter","status":"Met","tone":"ok","note":"Sales tax carried it; income tax and customs fell short","source":"Dawn: FBR Q1 FY27","url":"https://epaper.dawn.com/DetailImage.php?StoryImage=01_10_2026_009_004"},{"item":"Primary balance, FY26","latest":"Rs3.63tr surplus","target":"Rs3.16tr (IMF)","status":"Beat","tone":"ok","note":"Above the IMF target by Rs464bn","source":"Express Tribune: Govt exceeds IMF surplus target","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2623772/govt-exceeds-imf-surplus-target"},{"item":"Real GDP growth","latest":"2.0% (Q4 FY26)","target":"3.5–4.5% in FY27 (SBP)","status":"Below range","tone":"warn","note":"Full FY26 grew 3.65%","source":"PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct","url":"https://www.pbs.gov.pk/national-accounts-committee-nac-meeting/"},{"item":"IMF programme","latest":"Staff-level agreement (7 Oct)","target":"Board approval of 4th review","status":"Pending","tone":"warn","note":"About $1.2bn to follow approval","source":"Business Recorder: IMF staff-level agreement","url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443228/imf-pakistan-reach-staff-level-agreement-on-eff-rsf-reviews"}],"views":[{"who":"SBP Monetary Policy Committee (26 Oct)","view":"Keeps FY27 growth at 3.5–4.5% and the current-account deficit at 0–1% of GDP, but now says inflation returns to its target range only over the medium term.","source":"SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026","url":"https://www.sbp.org.pk/assets/documents/press-release/PR-26-Oct-2026.pdf"},{"who":"IMF staff (7 Oct)","view":"Says Pakistan has committed to ensuring that inflation returns durably to the SBP's target range.","source":"APP: IMF staff-level agreement, 8 Oct","url":"https://www.app.com.pk/business/imf-pakistan-reach-staff-level-agreement-on-1-2bn-disbursement/"},{"who":"Economist quoted by Express Tribune","view":"Sees FY27 average inflation of 11–13% and growth possibly below 3.5%, with more rate hikes possible.","source":"Express Tribune: More rate hikes may follow","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2637474/more-rate-hikes-may-follow"},{"who":"Topline Securities","view":"Expects FY27 remittances of $44.7bn.","source":"Express Tribune: remittances, Sep 2026","url":"https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633983/remittances-cool-to-36b-in-sept"}],"yield_curve":[{"tenor":"1M","latest":12.1055,"previous":null,"latest_display":"12.11%","previous_display":"n/a","latest_date":"2026-10-28","previous_date":null},{"tenor":"3M","latest":12.4261,"previous":12.0,"latest_display":"12.43%","previous_display":"12.00%","latest_date":"2026-10-28","previous_date":"2026-10-14"},{"tenor":"6M","latest":12.65,"previous":12.4,"latest_display":"12.65%","previous_display":"12.40%","latest_date":"2026-10-28","previous_date":"2026-10-14"},{"tenor":"12M","latest":12.89,"previous":12.5,"latest_display":"12.89%","previous_display":"12.50%","latest_date":"2026-10-28","previous_date":"2026-10-14"},{"tenor":"2Y","latest":null,"previous":12.399,"latest_display":"n/a","previous_display":"12.40%","latest_date":null,"previous_date":"2026-09-18"},{"tenor":"3Y","latest":12.75,"previous":12.49,"latest_display":"12.75%","previous_display":"12.49%","latest_date":"2026-10-07","previous_date":"2026-09-18"},{"tenor":"5Y","latest":12.9,"previous":12.49,"latest_display":"12.90%","previous_display":"12.49%","latest_date":"2026-10-07","previous_date":"2026-09-18"},{"tenor":"10Y","latest":12.85,"previous":12.5,"latest_display":"12.85%","previous_display":"12.50%","latest_date":"2026-10-07","previous_date":"2026-09-18"}]}