Source: Pakistan
Pakistan's key economic figures, each linked to its official source Data as of 30 Oct 202630 October 2026: Inflation of 10.3% is well above the State Bank's 5–7% target, so the policy rate is back up at 12.00%. Buffers are thicker, with SBP reserves at $21.52bn, but the current account has slipped back into deficit: −$874m in July–September.
What it means Expensive oil is squeezing Pakistan from both sides, keeping prices high at home and widening the trade gap, and the State Bank has chosen to fight inflation even at some cost to growth. Expect borrowing to stay costly for a while; the external account is the risk to watch, with thicker reserves as the cushion.
Key indicators
Official data feed, downloaded from the publisher and checked automatically Interim, read from the release or a news report of it Where each figure comes from
Green better for the economy Red worse Grey direction only, where a move is neither good nor bad in itself
A rate hike, thicker buffers and a wider gap
The State Bank tightened again as oil stayed high. Reserves are holding up, but the current account is back in deficit.
Read the note →Coming up
| Early Nov | October CPI (PBS) |
| 11 Nov | T-bill auction |
| Nov (date TBC) | IMF Executive Board: fourth EFF review |
| Thursdays | SBP weekly reserves |
| 14 Dec | Next SBP Monetary Policy Committee |
The economy in four questions
Is inflation coming back to the 5–7% target?
- Headline CPI, past 12 months
- 10.3%
- Core, urban (no food or energy)
- 8.6%
- Weekly essentials basket (SPI)
- 11.85%
- Real policy rate, vs headline
- +1.7 pp
- Real policy rate, vs core
- +3.4 pp
The SBP targets headline CPI; core strips out food and energy to show the underlying trend. The real rate is the policy rate minus inflation: positive means policy is actually tight.
Inflation →Are the external buffers holding?
- SBP reserves
- $21.52bn
- Gap to the end-December goal
- $1.48bn to go
- Current account, fiscal year to date
- −$874m
- Remittances, fiscal year to date
- $10.88bn
- Goods trade deficit, year to date
- $10.77bn
Reserves are what stand between an oil shock and a run on the rupee. Remittances from workers abroad pay for most of the goods trade gap.
External →Is growth picking up?
- Real GDP, last fiscal year
- 3.65%
- Latest quarter
- 2.0%
- Large-scale manufacturing, year to date
- +1.85%
- Private-sector credit, y/y
- +15.0%
- SBP projection, this fiscal year
- 3.5–4.5%
Pakistan's fiscal year runs July to June. Quarterly GDP shows the economy's pace; large-scale manufacturing and credit are the faster monthly reads.
Growth →Is the budget squeeze holding?
- Primary surplus, last fiscal year
- 2.9% of GDP
- Overall deficit, last fiscal year
- 2.6% of GDP
- FBR tax vs target, year to date
- +Rs30.5bn
- Share of this year's tax target collected
- 20.2%
- IMF fourth review
- Staff-level agreement
The primary balance leaves out interest payments, so it shows what the government controls. It is the main fiscal test in the IMF programme.
Budget & IMF →How Pakistan is doing against its own targets Our read
Each line sets the latest reading beside the target the State Bank, the government or the IMF has set for it. The status is this site's own call.
| Measure | Latest | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 10.3% (Sep) | 5–7% over the medium term | Above target |
| SBP reserves | $21.52bn (23 Oct) | $23bn by end-Dec 2026 | Short of goal |
| Current account, FY27 | −$874m (Jul–Sep) | Deficit of 0–1% of GDP | Inside range |
| FBR tax collection | Rs3,083bn (Jul–Sep) | Rs3,053bn for the quarter | Met |
| Primary balance, FY26 | Rs3.63tr surplus | Rs3.16tr (IMF) | Beat |
| Real GDP growth | 2.0% (Q4 FY26) | 3.5–4.5% in FY27 (SBP) | Below range |
| IMF programme | Staff-level agreement (7 Oct) | Board approval of 4th review | Pending |
Growth & activity
Real GDP growth by quarter
Year on year, from the National Accounts Committee's October revision. The dashed line is the full year.
Large-scale manufacturing, this year and last Official data feed
The State Bank's quantum index of big-factory output (2015-16 = 100), by month of the fiscal year, as published. Output is seasonal, so each month is best compared with the same month a year earlier.
Growth over a decade, and the IMF's view Official data feed
Real GDP growth by fiscal year from the IMF's World Economic Outlook. The lighter bar is the IMF's projection for this year.
What it shows Factory output in July and August ran slightly above last year's level, so manufacturing is growing, but slowly. The IMF expects growth of 3.5% this fiscal year, about the same as last year and well below the 6.2% of FY22: a recovery, but a modest one, and higher interest rates make a faster one less likely.
Activity indicators
Latest monthly reads on output, demand and credit.
| Indicator | Latest | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth3.11% in FY25 | Official data feed3.65% | FY26State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Real GDP growth, latest quarter (y/y)4.42% in Q3 | Interim figure2.0% | Q4 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2026)PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct |
| SBP growth projectionUnchanged at the Oct 26 meeting | Interim figure3.5–4.5% | FY27SBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026 |
| Size of the economyPer capita income $1,896 | Interim figure$450.4bn | FY26PBS National Accounts Committee, 19 Oct |
| Large-scale manufacturing (y/y)−4.96% vs July | Interim figure+0.67% | Aug 2026PBS LSM summary, Aug 2026 |
| Large-scale manufacturing, fiscal year to date (y/y)July alone: +3.03% | Interim figure+1.85% | Jul–Aug FY27Business Recorder: LSM Jul–Aug |
| Domestic cement despatches (y/y)Jul–Sep: +7.8% | Interim figure+7.4% | Sep 2026Business Recorder: cement despatches, Sep 2026 |
| Passenger car sales−9.8% y/y; Jul–Sep +43% | Interim figure10,939 | Sep 2026Business Recorder: car sales, Sep 2026 |
| Private-sector credit (y/y)+14.1% on 9 Oct | Official data feed+15.0% | 16 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Broad money, M2 (y/y)12.7% on 9 Oct | Official data feed13.1% | 16 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
Inflation
Inflation and the policy rate
CPI inflation, year on year, and the SBP policy rate at each month-end. The shaded band is the SBP's medium-term target.
What it shows Inflation was below the 5–7% target band in mid-2025 and inside it from September to February, then rose to 7.3% in March and jumped to 10.9% in April 2026; it has stayed between 9.2% and 11.7% since. The State Bank cut its rate to 10.5% in December, raised it to 11.5% in April and to 12.00% this week, leaving it 1.7 points above inflation: positive, but a thin cushion if oil keeps pushing prices up.
Monthly CPI figures checked against the State Bank's EasyData series TS_GP_PT_CPI_M.P00011516; the policy rate is from the State Bank's policy statements.
Inflation measures
Headline, urban and rural, the SBP's core measures, and the weekly and wholesale price indices.
| Measure | Latest | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation, national (y/y)11.1% in Aug; 5.8% a year earlier | Official data feed10.3% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| CPI, month on month+1.2% in Aug | Official data feed+1.3% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| CPI average, fiscal year to date (y/y)4.3% a year earlier | Official data feed10.2% | Jul–Sep FY27State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Urban CPI (y/y)10.4% in Aug | Official data feed10.1% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Rural CPI (y/y)12.2% in Aug | Official data feed10.5% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Core, urban non-food non-energy (y/y)8.8% in Aug | Official data feed8.6% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Core, rural non-food non-energy (y/y)8.5% in Aug | Official data feed8.1% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Core, urban 20% trimmed mean (y/y)8.9% in Aug | Official data feed9.4% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Food inflation, urban (y/y)12.1% in Aug | Official data feed8.1% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Weekly essentials basket, SPI (y/y)+0.65% on the week | Interim figure11.85% | Week to 22 OctExpress Tribune: weekly SPI, 22 Oct |
| Wholesale prices, WPI (y/y)11.8% in Aug | Official data feed13.3% | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| SBP medium-term inflation target | Interim figure5–7% | Headline CPISBP Monetary Policy Statement, 26 Oct 2026 |
Interest rates & markets
Government yield curve
T-bill cut-off yields from the 28 Oct auction, after the October rate hike, against 14 Oct; bond yields from the 7 Oct PIB auction against 18 Sep. Figures from the State Bank's auction results and EasyData; no 2-year bond result has been published for 7 Oct.
| Tenor | Latest auctions | Previous auctions |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | 12.11% | n/a |
| 3M | 12.43% | 12.00% |
| 6M | 12.65% | 12.40% |
| 12M | 12.89% | 12.50% |
| 2Y | n/a | 12.40% |
| 3Y | 12.75% | 12.49% |
| 5Y | 12.90% | 12.49% |
| 10Y | 12.85% | 12.50% |
Rates, currency, stocks and oil
Policy settings, money-market and bond yields, and market closes.
| Market | Latest | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| SBP policy rate11.50% on 28 Apr | Official data feed12.00% | 26 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Interest-rate corridor (floor–ceiling) | Interim figure11.00–13.00% | Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan home page |
| Overnight repo, weighted average11.49% on 28 Oct | Official data feed12.34% | 29 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| 12-month T-bill, auction cut-off12.50% at the 14 Oct auction | Interim figure12.89% | 28 Oct auctionSBP: T-bill auction results, 28 Oct |
| Latest T-bill auctionCut-offs up by as much as 61 bp | Interim figureRs1.91tr raised | 28 Oct 2026Dawn: T-bill auction, 28 Oct |
| 10-year PIB, auction cut-off12.50% on 18 Sep | Official data feed12.85% | 7 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| KSE-100 index+0.88% on the day | Interim figure167,193 | 29 Oct closeBusiness Recorder: PSX close, 29 Oct |
| KSE-100 at the end of last yearLast close of 2025 | Interim figure174,054 | 31 Dec 2025APP: PSX close, 31 Dec 2025 |
| Rupees per US dollar (SBP mark-to-market rate)276.76 on 29 Oct | Official data feed276.75 | 30 Oct 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Rupees per US dollar at the end of last year | Interim figure280.12 | 31 Dec 2025APP: rupee, 31 Dec 2025 |
| Brent crude, $ per barrel−$0.44 on the day | Interim figure$114.88 | 29 Oct settleCNBC: oil prices, 29 Oct |
| Eurobond, 10-year coupon$1.25bn | Interim figure7.90% | Issued Sep 2026Business Recorder: Eurobond, Sep 2026 |
| Eurobond, 5.5-year coupon$1.75bn | Interim figure7.50% | Issued Sep 2026Business Recorder: Eurobond, Sep 2026 |
External account & reserves
SBP reserves and the Governor's goals
The State Bank's own liquid foreign-exchange reserves, $ billion. Faded bars are goals, not data.
Buffers and projections
Reserves, the current account and remittances, with the State Bank's projection.
| Indicator | Latest | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| SBP foreign-exchange reserves+$33m on the week | Interim figure$21.52bn | 23 Oct 2026Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct |
| Total liquid reserves (SBP + banks)Banks hold $5.23bn | Interim figure$26.75bn | 23 Oct 2026Business Recorder: SBP reserves, 29 Oct |
| Import cover, total liquid reserves2.2 months a year earlier | Interim figure3+ months | Jul–Sep FY27Profit: Finance Ministry Q1 FY27 scorecard |
| SBP reserves goal$25bn by end-June 2027 | Interim figure$23bn | End-Dec 2026Mettis Global: SBP Governor's press conference, 26 Oct |
| Current account balance, fiscal year to date−$755m a year earlier | Official data feed−$874m | Jul–Sep FY27State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Current account balance−$73m in Aug | Official data feed−$356m | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Workers' remittances$3.18bn a year earlier | Official data feed$3.59bn | Sep 2026State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Workers' remittances, fiscal year to date$9.54bn a year earlier | Official data feed$10.88bn | Jul–Sep FY27State Bank of Pakistan, EasyData
|
| Goods trade deficit, fiscal year to dateExports $8.45bn, imports $19.21bn | Interim figure$10.77bn | Jul–Sep FY27PBS: external trade release, Sep 2026 |
| SBP current-account projectionGovernor: probably around 0.5% | Interim figure0–1% of GDP deficit | FY27The Nation: SBP raises rate to 12% |
This fiscal year so far
Balance of payments and goods trade, July–September 2026.
| Item | Jul–Sep | Sep | Aug |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current account balance | −$874m | −$356m | −$73m |
| Workers' remittances | $10.88bn | $3.59bn | $3.66bn |
| Goods exports | $8.45bn | $2.96bn | $2.53bn |
| Goods imports | $19.21bn | $6.49bn | $5.82bn |
Budget, the IMF & ratings
Fiscal balance, % of GDP
Consolidated federal and provincial. The primary balance excludes interest payments.
Revenue, programme and credit ratings
Tax collection against target, the IMF programme and the three agencies' ratings.
| Item | Latest | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| FBR tax collection, fiscal year to date+7% y/y | Interim figureRs3,083bn | Jul–Sep FY27Business Recorder: FBR collection, Q1 FY27 |
| FBR target, fiscal year to date | Interim figureRs3,053bn | Jul–Sep FY27Business Recorder: FBR collection, Q1 FY27 |
| FBR annual targetCollected just over Rs13tr in FY26 | Interim figureRs15,264bn | FY27Dawn: FBR Q1 FY27 |
| Overall fiscal deficit5.4% in FY25 | Interim figure2.6% of GDP | FY26The Nation: fiscal operations FY26 |
| Primary surplusThird primary surplus in a row | Interim figure2.9% of GDP | FY26The News: fiscal operations FY26 |
| IMF EFF, fourth reviewAbout $1.2bn awaits Executive Board approval | Interim figureStaff-level agreement | 7 Oct 2026Business Recorder: IMF staff-level agreement |
| IMF disbursed once approved (EFF + RSF) | Interim figureabout $5.7bn | EFF + RSF to dateRadio Pakistan: IMF agreement |
| Moody's sovereign ratingFrom Caa1 | Interim figureB3 (stable) | Raised Aug 2026Business Recorder: Moody's upgrade, Aug 2026 |
| S&P sovereign ratingFrom B− | Interim figureB (stable) | Raised Jul 2026The Nation: S&P upgrade, Jul 2026 |
| Fitch sovereign rating | Interim figureB− (stable) | Affirmed Apr 2026Profit: Fitch affirmation, Apr 2026 |
Pakistan and its neighbours
The same oil shock hit every oil importer in the region. The real rate is the policy rate minus the latest inflation reading; each country measures inflation its own way.
| Country | Inflation | Policy rate | Last move | Real rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 10.3% | 12.00% | +50 bp, 26 Oct | +1.7 pp |
| India | 5.54% | 5.50% | +25 bp, 7 Oct | 0.0 pp |
| Bangladesh | 8.34% | 9.50% | Held, 30 Sep | +1.2 pp |
| Sri Lanka | 8.0% | 8.75% | Held, 30 Sep | +0.8 pp |
| Egypt | 13.9% | 19.00% | Held, 5th meeting in a row | +5.1 pp |
What forecasters expect
The State Bank, the IMF and local brokerages, summarised from what they have said recently.
| Who | View |
|---|---|
| SBP Monetary Policy Committee (26 Oct) | Keeps FY27 growth at 3.5–4.5% and the current-account deficit at 0–1% of GDP, but now says inflation returns to its target range only over the medium term. |
| IMF staff (7 Oct) | Says Pakistan has committed to ensuring that inflation returns durably to the SBP's target range. |
| Economist quoted by Express Tribune | Sees FY27 average inflation of 11–13% and growth possibly below 3.5%, with more rate hikes possible. |
| Topline Securities | Expects FY27 remittances of $44.7bn. |
About these numbers
Source: Pakistan brings together the latest figures from the State Bank of Pakistan, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Finance Ministry and the Federal Board of Revenue, with market closes for stocks, the rupee and oil, and outlooks from the IMF and World Bank.
Figures are moving to official data feeds one at a time. A figure marked is downloaded from the publisher's own data service, archived exactly as received and calculated by code, and shows its series code, calculation, download time and file fingerprint. A figure marked is interim: read from the release, or a news report of it, and linked to that source. Every figure is checked before it goes live.
Pakistan's fiscal year runs from July to June, so FY27 is the year that began in July 2026. Year-to-date changes, real interest rates and gaps to targets are worked out from the figures shown. The scorecard's statuses and the summaries of forecasters' views are this site's own reading. Nothing here is investment advice.
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